We study a monetary economy with two large open economies displaying net real and financial flows. If default on cross-border loans is possible, taxing financial flows can reduce its negative consequences. In doing so it can improve welfare unilaterally, in some cases in a Pareto sense, via...

In this companion paper to Goodhart et al. (2012), we explore the interactions of various types of financial regulation. We find that regulations that control fire-sale risk are critical for delivering financial stability and improving the welfare of savers and borrowers. We describe the...

This paper examines how well forecasters can predict the future time path of (policy-determined) short-term interest rates. Most prior work has been done using U.S. data; in this exercise we use forecasts made for New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and those derived from money...

A central bank’s forecast must contain some assumption about the future path for its own policy-determined short-term interest rate. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three main alternatives: (i) constant from the latest level (ii) as implicitly predicted from the yield curve...

This paper focuses on the recapitalization of failing banks. A recapitalization is efficient if the social benefits (preserving systemic stability) exceed the cost of recapitalization. In a national setting, the implementation of an optimal policy is relatively straightforward. But in a...