This paper considers an equilibrium/error correction modelling (ECM) approach to identify determinants of mortgage portfolio default rates at firm level. Using mortgage portfolio data from a UK lender we estimated the lender's portfolio concentration weights in different UK regions to estimate...

Traditionally, univariate time-series models have largely dominated forecasting for international tourism demand. In this paper, the ability of a genetic program (GP) to predict monthly tourist arrivals from UK and Germany to Balearic Islands, Spain is explored. GP has already been employed...

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate volatility for a set of three European countries, Germany, Sweden and the UK, on sectoral exports for the period 1973 q1-2010 q4. In addition to the standard deviation of moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate, a new measure capturing...