This paper applies receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to micro-level, monthly time series from the M3-Competition. Forecasts from competing methods were used in binary decision rules to forecast exceptionally large declines in demand. Using the partial area under the ROC curve...

The exception principle of management reporting suggests that, under ordinary conditions, operational staff persons make decisions, but that the same staff refer decisions to upper-level managers under exceptional conditions. Forecasts of large changes or extreme values in product or service...