This paper applies receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to micro-level, monthly time series from the M3-Competition. Forecasts from competing methods were used in binary decision rules to forecast exceptionally large declines in demand. Using the partial area under the ROC curve...

Time series monitoring methods, such as the Brown and Trigg methods, have the purpose of detecting pattern breaks (or "signals") in time series data reliably and in a timely fashion. Traditionally, researchers have used the average run length (ARL) statistic on results from generated signal...

The exception principle of management reporting suggests that, under ordinary conditions, operational staff persons make decisions, but that the same staff refer decisions to upper-level managers under exceptional conditions. Forecasts of large changes or extreme values in product or service...