This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring US recessions in the presence of instabilities. We propose several specifications of the probit model for classifying phases of the business cycle. We find strong evidence in favor of those that allow for the...

We discuss and reconcile the geological and economic/technological views concerning the future of world oil production and prices, and present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in...