This paper develops a stylized model to provide a rational explanation for the boom-and-bust price movement pattern that we frequently observe in the real world. Our stylized model indicates that there are three conditions to form a boom-and-bust price pattern in a community: a move-in of high...

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is...

Conventional wisdom tells us that the price level of properties should be supported by the rent they receive. This paper examines the pricing factors of properties by analyzing how individuals allocate their income to housing consumption and other goods, which in turn become the rent (or...

The Hong Kong residential market is unique in several aspects: restricted land supply, high price volatility, high appreciation rate, a small group of large developers, and a huge public housing sector. Assuming that higher price appreciation and volatility can be attributed to the limited land...

Asset pricing models have been used extensively in the recent real estate literature to evaluate real estate performance and estimate required rates of return of properties. In this paper, we show that the CAPM and its variants will derive a biased result when short sales are not allowed in the...