This paper presents a unified framework to explain three major economic downturns: the U.S. Great Depression, the U.S. Great Recession, and Japan's Long Recession. Temporary economic disruptions, such as banking crises and excessive debt accumulation, can drive natural interest rates into...

Most economists maintain that the labor market in the United States is 'tight' because unemployment rates are low. They infer from this that there is potential for wage-push inflation. However, real wages are falling rapidly at present and, prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some...

At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...

This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including women who differ by race and ethnicity,...

We test for heterogeneity in the effects of the COVID-19 recession on young workers by estimating month-by-month effects of the pandemic on labor market outcomes among workers aged 15-19 and aged 20-24. We use CPS data from January 2016 to June 2021, limiting the sample to childless individuals...

Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in...

Previous research has documented that Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) applications and awards increase during economic downturns and that expanded access to SSDI leads to a reduction in employment. We build on these insights and investigate to what extent differential access to SSDI...

The impact of an economic shock depends both on its severity and the resilience of the economic response. Resilience can include the ability to relocate factors, for example, even when new technologies or skills are not yet at the ready. This resilience per se buffers production and has an...

Employment in STEM occupations suffered smaller peak-to-trough percentage declines than non-STEM occupations during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recession, suggesting a relative resiliency of STEM employment. We exploit the sudden peak-to-trough declines in STEM and non-STEM employment...

Prior to 2020, the Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic shock to the United States economy in generations. Millions lost jobs and homes. At its peak, one in ten workers who wanted a job could not find one. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by more than it had since the...