In response to questions about the relative importance of different types of capital flow for international competitiveness, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model of the real exchange rate and international capital flows. We reveal that innovations to speculative sentiment cause...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and five. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign...

Currently, global value chains (GVCs) are increasingly shaping the global economy, covering a growing share of international trade, GDP, and employment globally. Global trade is impacted by the emergence of GVCs in areas as diverse as commodities, electronics, and business service outsourcing,...

This paper empirically investigates the sources of fluctuations in real and nominal Mongolian Tugrik (MNT) exchange rates by estimating the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model over the period January 1994-May 2021 and decomposing the exchange rate series into stochastic components...

The link between export performance and exchange rate policy has been attracting attention from policymakers, academics, and practitioners for some time, particularly for emerging countries. It has been recently claimed that implementing a policy that devalues the currency in Vietnam is an...