Showing 1 - 10 of 27
A country's exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries. I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479395
In this paper I quantify a gain that a country receives when its global influence is considered to be admirable by others. I use a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2013, and an annual survey conducted for the BBC by GlobeScan which asks people in up...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457132
unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a … variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which … a smaller trade effect than other currency unions; it has a mildly stimulating effect at best. Third and most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457134
It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular models such as GARCH. We consider two major dollar exchange rates, and we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471288
A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international … trade. The panel data set used includes bilateral observations for five years spanning 1970 through 1990 for 186 countries … same currency. I find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade, and a small negative effect of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471350
This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In … experience more volatile growth rates in both output and consumption, even after accounting for political institutions, trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464312
The notion of model-free implied volatility (MFIV), constituting the basis for the highly publicized VIX volatility … more compatible with the related concept of corridor implied volatility (CIV). We provide a comprehensive derivation of the … CIV measure and relate it to MFIV under general assumptions. In addition, we price the various volatility contracts, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465200
intraday data and nonparametric volatility measures, along with a new jump detection technique and appropriate conditional … alleviate microstructure frictions for realized volatility estimation. Size and power of the procedure are explored through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465693
We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term … cross-section of fixed-maturity zero-coupon bonds ("realized yield volatility") through the use of high-frequency data. We … find that the yield curve fails to span yield volatility, as the systematic volatility factors are largely unrelated to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465694
A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and … return volatility. In an application to the DM/$ exchange rate, the S&P500 market index, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond … non-jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model, we find that almost all of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466896