This paper infers the terms of trade effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTA's) with the structural gravity model. Using … panel data methods to resolve two way causality between trade and FTA's, we estimate direct FTA effects on bilateral trade … volume in 2 digit manufacturing goods from 1990-2002. We deduce the terms of trade changes implied by these volume effects …

Almost Ideal gravity associates zero trade flows with variable and fixed trade cost variation in a flexible demand … system. Latent trade shares between non-partners are inferred from the Tobit estimator applied to trade among 75 countries … and 25 sectors in 2006. Latent Trade Bias (LTB) is the difference between the latent trade share and the as …

unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a … variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which … a smaller trade effect than other currency unions; it has a mildly stimulating effect at best. Third and most …

We estimate geographic barriers to export trade in nine service categories for Canada's provinces from 1997 to 2007 … direct plus indirect effect of services trade costs on intra-provincial, inter-provincial and international trade relative to … their frictionless benchmarks. Barriers to services international trade are huge relative to inter-provincial trade and …

Most empirical policy work requires the aggregation of policies. Trade policy aggregation exemplifies the aggregation … problem poignantly, with thousands of highly dispersed trade barriers. This paper provides methods of policy aggregation that … income by around 3 times the global gains from free trade …

Mutual causation of predation and trade induces novel effects of commercial policy in this paper. The model can explain … trade volume responses to market widening initiatives that are otherwise puzzlingly 'too big' or 'too small'. Efficient … normally internalized by subsidizing (taxing) trade when enforcement is weak (strong). Efficient regional policy squeezes weak …

deflection since it can deter viability of a challenger, essentially like entry deterrence. U.S. trade policy since 1934 provides …

Why does illegal trade often flourish without formal enforcement, but sometimes fail? Why do illegal trade …-reducing policies often fail? Why do States often appear to tolerate illegal trade? A model of trade with cops and robbers provides … answers. `Safety in numbers' is a key element: the equilibrium probability of successful shipments is increasing in trade …