unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a … variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which … a smaller trade effect than other currency unions; it has a mildly stimulating effect at best. Third and most …

fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the prominent role of trade policy as a source of uncertainty and stock … market volatility since March 2018, when U.S.-China tensions began to escalate. Lastly, I offer remarks on the interplay …

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international … trade. The panel data set used includes bilateral observations for five years spanning 1970 through 1990 for 186 countries … same currency. I find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade, and a small negative effect of …

market performance in the preceding three months. This pattern strengthens in the postwar period. Third, market volatility is … volatility and other controls. Fourth, greater clarity as to jump reason also foreshadows lower volatility. Clarity in this sense …

fluctuates greatly over time. Trade Policy news, for example, went from a virtual nonfactor in equity market volatility to a …We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the …

This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In … experience more volatile growth rates in both output and consumption, even after accounting for political institutions, trade …

1990s and thereafter. U.S. data also show a secular decline in the job destruction rate and the volatility of firm … relationship of job destruction and business volatility to unemployment flows. We find strong evidence that declines in the …

-series properties are also affected. For example, hires exhibit more volatility than separations in the published statistics, but the …