Having efficient and accurate samplers for simulating the posterior distribution is crucial for Bayesian analysis. We develop a generic posterior simulator called the "dynamic striated Metropolis-Hastings (DSMH)" sampler. Grounded in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, it draws its strengths from...

No, not really. Responding to lingering concerns about the reliability of SVARs, Christiano et al (NBER Macro Annual, 2006, "CEV") propose to combine OLS estimates of a VAR with a spectral estimate of long-run variance. In principle, this could help alleviate specification problems of SVARs in...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

The paper questions the reasonability of using forecast error variance decompositions for assessing the role of different structural shocks in business cycle fluctuations. It is shown that the forecast error variance decomposition is related to a dubious definition of the business cycle. A...

The economic meltdown since 2008-9 has created disinflation, and even deflation in some countries in the Euro-area, in a period with large debt overhang, creating the condition for a continuing financial market stress in the Euro-area. As disinflation and deflation push up the real interest...

This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect measurement of variables causes much difficulty in...