Showing 1 - 9 of 9
scale of a DSGE model and that of the time series data used for its estimation generally creates identfication problems …, introduces estimation bias and distorts the results of policy analysis. On the constructive side, we prove that the use of mixed … frequency data, combined with a proper estimation approach, can alleviate the temporal aggregation bias, mitigate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143827
estimation can have serious consequences for identification, estimation and interpretation of the impulse response functions …. However, the use of mixed frequency data, combined with a proper estimation approach, can alleviate the temporal aggregation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143839
Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock transmission mechanism. This requires the VAR parameters to be stable over the evaluation and forecast sample, or to explicitly consider parameter time variation. The earlier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143851
Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280768
A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the range of possible paths the predicted variable may follow for a given confidence level requires construction of simultaneous confidence regions that adjust for any covariance between the elements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274342
This paper analyses the use of factor analysis for instrumental variable estimation when the number of instruments … experiments and empirical applications highlight the relevance and simplicity of Factor-GMM estimation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284191
The estimation of dynamic factor models for large sets of variables has attracted considerable attention recently, due … alternative estimation approaches based, respectively, on static and dynamic principal components. The new method appears to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284214
We develop non-parametric instrumental variable estimation and inferential theory for econometric models with possibly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012670874
We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286274