Methodologies for analyzing the forces that move and shape national economies have advanced markedly in the last thirty years, enabling economists as never before to unite theoretical and empirical research and align measurement with theory. In <i>Structural Macroeconometrics</i>, David DeJong and...

Methodologies for analyzing the forces that move and shape national economies have advanced markedly in the last thirty years, enabling economists as never before to unite theoretical and empirical research and align measurement with theory. In <i>Structural Macroeconometrics</i>, David DeJong and...

We examine the role of generalized constant gain stochastic gradient (SGCG) learning in generating large deviations of an endogenous variable from its rational expectations value. We show analytically that these large deviations can occur with a frequency associated with a fat tailed...