Summary Exchange rates have been found to be more volatile than underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. Researchers have argued that the empirically observed high exchange-rate volatility may result from herd behavior of foreign-exchange traders and forecasters. We sketch a standard model that...

Summary The paper examines the relationship between central bank interventions in the dollar-deutschmark market and the profitability of technical trading for the period 1979-1992. While previous work on this topic focused on the interventions of the Fed, we include data on Bundesbank...

Summary We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll for the time period Oct. 1989 - Dec. 2008 to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard...