Summary We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll for the time period Oct. 1989 - Dec. 2008 to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard...

Summary The paper examines the relationship between central bank interventions in the dollar-deutschmark market and the profitability of technical trading for the period 1979-1992. While previous work on this topic focused on the interventions of the Fed, we include data on Bundesbank...

Summary In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the Council’s real economy forecasts, i. e. their growth, unemployment...