The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the expenditures decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and...

In the last years it seemed that the Romanian economy leading up to access to the EU was going to enter a new stage, evolving more and more in line with the standard theory. Based on more accurate statistical data for the last years, we try to verify some hypotheses used in the standard economic...

In the last decade, a number of empirical studies tried to highlight a strong correlation among foreign trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth. Moreover, the recent crisis affecting firstly the GDP growth had also a negative impact on foreign trade and on FDI inflow. Today, there...

Interdependencies – in time and in space – between (the most) different phenomena and processes, as well as entities (at global – national – local/regional – firm level) – characterize all the domains and levels of the society and humankind. The main idea and the general purpose of...

This paper presents some government policies scenarios and proposes the appropriate policies for stimulating the economic growth in Romania. The GDP dynamics, budgetary revenues, employment and wages are forecasted using a macroeconomic model of the Romanian economy. The direct effects of the...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

In macroeconomic modelling a central role is played by the forecast of state budget revenues and expenditures, since the financial-budgetary resources are the bases of income redistribution in the society and orientate economic growth. In view to achieve a trade-off between sustainable...

The paper attempts to study the influences of the quarterly changes in the international oil price upon certain macroeconomic indicators and upon the GDP, using the principal components analysis. It also analyzes the indirect impact of a change in oil prices – through all the other indicators...

We continue with the problem of the relation between predictability and complexity in the Romanian economy, analyzing other two components of GDP: domestic consumption and public consumption. The basic idea of this work is that the unpredictability of a system gives a measure of its complexity,...