This paper is organized in two parts, an overview of the evolution of inflation, highlighting the factors that influenced the persistent inflation in Romania, and a VAR model for the impulse analyses. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulating and researching...

The paper intends to present synthetically the main approaches to computing core inflation, taking into consideration the importance of core inflation for conducting monetary policy. At the same time, the paper computes different measures of core inflation using methods based on excluding...

This paper is organized in two parts, the presentation of the model of inflation for Romania, and the results of different scenarios starting from the base model. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for the simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in...

The paper focuses on the persistent and non-persistent changes in relative prices and their relation with the volatility of the aggregated price index. From the methodological perspective, the paper analyzes the implications of the hypotheses of five main methods for calculating core inflation...

Within the Information Society-Knowledge Society Priority Project, initiated by the Romanian Academy for the purpose of stimulating anticipatory reflection and providing landmarks for the National Strategy for the Information Society, a prospective study on the general topic of developing the...

The study aims to extend the GARCH type volatility models to their nonlinear TAR (Tong, 1990) and STAR-based (Terasvirta, 1994) counter parts where both the conditional mean and the conditional variance processes follow TAR and STAR nonlinearity. The paper further investigates the models under...

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary fundamentals. I used robust regression approach for constructing robust neural models less sensitive to contamination with outliers and I studied its predictability on 1 to 6-month...

The paper presents the yearly and monthly forecast of the Romanian transition economy performed on the basis of the “Dobrescu” macromodel.

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...