The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the expenditures decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis...

The current paper attempts to describe the labor market parameter dynamics using a different method, namely the semi-Markovian processes. This method allows for the labor market study without the large fluctuations that occurred at a certain moment in time impinging upon the results of the...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and...

In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to 2010-2015 horizon, the authors use a mix of forecasting models, like „medium-term” ones and „long-run” models. In this respect three alternative models are used, a sustainability function model (for public...

The paper presents a high-frequency (monthly) forecast for six macroeconomic indicators: industrial output, inflation, unemployment rate, monetary base, households’ savings and exchange rate.

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...

This paper is organized in two parts, an overview of the evolution of inflation, highlighting the factors that influenced the persistent inflation in Romania, and a VAR model for the impulse analyses. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulating and researching...

The paper presents a high-frequency (monthly) forecast for six macroeconomic indicators: industrial output, inflation, unemployment rate, monetary base, households’ savings and exchange rate.

Polynomial interpolation can be used to approximate functions and their derivatives. Some autoregressive models can be stated by using polynomial interpolation and function approximation.

The problem of forecasting the economic systems' activity over a large time horizon is the main concern of both the researchers in the economic field and the system managers. In most cases, its solving is reduced to simulating the structure of the economic indicators which render the system...