This paper is organized in two parts, the presentation of the model of inflation for Romania, and the results of different scenarios starting from the base model. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for the simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in...

The paper intends to present synthetically the main approaches to computing core inflation, taking into consideration the importance of core inflation for conducting monetary policy. At the same time, the paper computes different measures of core inflation using methods based on excluding...

The paper focuses on the persistent and non-persistent changes in relative prices and their relation with the volatility of the aggregated price index. From the methodological perspective, the paper analyzes the implications of the hypotheses of five main methods for calculating core inflation...

The study aims to extend the GARCH type volatility models to their nonlinear TAR (Tong, 1990) and STAR-based (Terasvirta, 1994) counter parts where both the conditional mean and the conditional variance processes follow TAR and STAR nonlinearity. The paper further investigates the models under...

The paper makes a critical assessment of the Principal Components-GARCH (PC-GARCH) model and argues why, when dealing with hundreds or thousands of variables, this model comes up as the most appropriate to be used. The suitability originates from the perspective of quality/cost ratio of...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the expenditures decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and...

Polynomial interpolation can be used to approximate functions and their derivatives. Some autoregressive models can be stated by using polynomial interpolation and function approximation.

The paper attempts to study the influences of the quarterly changes in the international oil price upon certain macroeconomic indicators and upon the GDP, using the principal components analysis. It also analyzes the indirect impact of a change in oil prices – through all the other indicators...