This paper compares several statistical models for daily stock return volatility in terms of sample fit and out-of-sample forecast ability. The focus is on U.S. and Romanian daily stock return data corresponding to the 2002-2010 time interval. We investigate the presence of leverage effects in...

A New Keynesian model of open economy is estimated and discussed in the case of Romania. The model is estimated using quarterly data on a post-2000 sample. The paper focuses on the monetary policy analysis and compares several specifications for the monetary policy within the Bayesian framework....

In this paper I estimate a New Keynesian Model with sticky prices for the Romanian economy for the period 1991-2002, using quarterly data. The estimation was made in Dynare using the Bayesian approach. The degree of the price stickiness is moderate. The model makes good predictions in terms of...

A recent article (Pavelescu, 2009) proposes a correction to the conventional student-t test of significance in linear regression models, but offers no formal description of its properties. This comment formally characterizes the sampling properties of the corrected student-t statistic. In...

The paper aims to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve in the case of Romanian economy. The empirical model estimates simultaneously the potential output and the output gap; the natural rate of unemployment and the cyclical unemployment as an Okun Law type relationship; and the New Phillips...

Most of the research papers revealing the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania focused on VAR, Structural VAR or Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Our paper brings new empirical evidence regarding the impact of NBR’s monetary policy shocks on the real economy,...

In this study I use the Bayesian VAR framework to forecast the dynamics of output for the Romanian economy. I estimate several versions of Bayesian VARs and compare them in terms of forecasting statistics with two standard models, the OLS and the unrestricted VAR, as well as with a naïve...

In this paper, I study the impact of the domestic and external shocks on the Romanian economy. I use an open economy DSGE model and estimate it for the Romanian economy using Bayesian techniques. The impact of the domestic shocks is moderate but not persistent. The Euro Area demand and interest...

The paper presents the yearly and monthly forecast of the Romanian transition economy performed on the basis of the “Dobrescu” macromodel.

The paper briefly presents the "Dobrescu" macromodel, the 2002 version, and the yearly and monthly (September version) forecast of the Romanian transition economy computed on its basis. * (Source: Emilian Dobrescu, Macromodels of the Romanian Transition Economy, Third edition, Expert Publishing...