In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for...

In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval...

The accession of twelve Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) to the European Union (in 2004 and 2007) has given rise to new challenges in evaluating the effects of integration, for both the old and the new member states. These issues can only be addressed in a consistent, economy-wide...

Drawing on the asymmetric growth experiences of the advanced, emerging, and the underdeveloped economies, this paper explores the scope of learning effects via North-South trade by offering quantitative measures of coefficient of differences in trade. Constructing technology appropriation...

On its way to the accession to the European Union, Romanian could decide upon adopting the strategy of direct targeting the inflation, abandoning thus the intermediary targets after 2003. Therefore, the estimation of the monetary condition index would have only informative value since it is an...

The paper investigates the taxonomy of the households participating in informal activities in Romania using econometric and clusters analysis. The models employed consider that the economy consists of three sectors: formal, informal and public. Only economic agents and workers in the formal...

Economic time series are, in their vast majority, integrated series so, their modelling procedure stumbles upon the problem of spurious regression. When existent, cointegration is the simplest way of eliminating the illogical correlation established between time series due to the presence of...

The purpose of this paper is to present a Romanian CGE model and to test it in drafting a macroeconomic scenario towards 2010. The authors review the main assumptions underlying the CGE model. They calibrate the model, using data from National Accounts for the year 2002. They find that the...

The transition from the centralized economy to the market economy has determined important changes in higher education in the countries of the former socialist bloc. In a relatively short period an impressive growth in the number of students has been recorded without taking into account the...

Under the conditions of OLS use in order to perform multiple linear regressions, both the estimated parameters values and also computed values of some statistical tests such as coefficient of determination, Fisher test or Student test are influenced by collinearity1. The respective influence is...