We employ duration-dependent Markov-switching vector auto-regression (DDMSVAR) methodology to construct an economic cycle model for an emerging economy. By modifying the software codes for DDMSVAR methodology written by Pelagatti (2003), we show how to estimate the economic cycles in an emerging...

Recent work done within the CNCSIS IDEI ID_1046 financed project has resulted in some ideas related to complex system behaviour and to certain ways in which this behaviour may be described using nonlinear models especially in relation to the evolution of the PIB and its components. We are...

Most of the research papers revealing the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania focused on VAR, Structural VAR or Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Our paper brings new empirical evidence regarding the impact of NBR’s monetary policy shocks on the real economy,...

The distribution of persons in each economy by their income is similar to the Maxwell-Boltzmann equilibrium distribution encountered in various physical systems. The transactions the persons are making to buy things that make them survive (in all sort of ways) are making them ‘poorer’,...

GDP and its components’ evolution show an oscillatory behavior. As an alternative approach to classical cyclical behavior producing models the paper analyses this behavior both by Fourier transforms of the data series and by a discussion of the roots configuration of the associated second...

This paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971–2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding...

The paper provides a critical assessment of the main forecasting techniques and an evaluation of the superiority of the more advanced and complex models. Ultimately, its scope is to offer support for the rationale behind of an idea: GARCH is the most appropriate model to use when one has to...

The model is one theoretical approach within a broader research program that could verify the nonlinear conjectures made to quantify and predict potential discontinuous behaviour. In this case, the crisis behaviour associated with financial funds reallocation among various credit instruments,...

Considering the epistemic and ontological sense of principles and functions and the way they contribute to the creation and evolution of institutional structures a model was developed in which the reaction-diffusion of mimes (Dawkins) in a human niche (Popper) is described as a Brusselator that...

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications of the internal policies and the international environment. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during...