Showing 1 - 10 of 137
The current work undertakes an overview of the forecasting volatility with high frequency data topic, attempting to … explains why forecasting of volatility is more effective when the model contains a measure of intraday data. A discrete and a … is considered. Details on procedures employed in the literature with respect to modeling and forecasting using realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009151358
This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265554
The paper makes a critical assessment of the Principal Components-GARCH (PC-GARCH) model and argues why, when dealing with hundreds or thousands of variables, this model comes up as the most appropriate to be used. The suitability originates from the perspective of quality/cost ratio of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010553158
Realized measures of volatility based on high frequency data contain valuable information about the unobserved conditional volatility. In this paper, we use the Realized GARCH model developed by Hansen, Huang and Shek (2012) to estimate and forecast price volatility for four agricultural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604361
In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265552
Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010583871
Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting … forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models more accurate than economic models to predict inflation? In this … presenting a simple methodology to test the null hypothesis of equal predictive ability between two families of forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010702341
The paper presents the yearly and monthly forecast of the Romanian transition economy performed on the basis of the “Dobrescu” macromodel.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248483
Development and Forecasting and the National Bank of Romania in order to update the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme") …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248485
The paper briefly presents the "Dobrescu" macromodel, the 2005 version, and the yearly forecast of the Romanian market economy computed on its basis. * (PHARE Programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248486