Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with families of models and not just with a couple of forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...

We employ duration-dependent Markov-switching vector auto-regression (DDMSVAR) methodology to construct an economic cycle model for an emerging economy. By modifying the software codes for DDMSVAR methodology written by Pelagatti (2003), we show how to estimate the economic cycles in an emerging...

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...

This paper is organized in two parts, an overview of the evolution of inflation, highlighting the factors that influenced the persistent inflation in Romania, and a VAR model for the impulse analyses. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulating and researching...

The paper intends to present synthetically the main approaches to computing core inflation, taking into consideration the importance of core inflation for conducting monetary policy. At the same time, the paper computes different measures of core inflation using methods based on excluding...

The purpose of this paper is to present a Romanian CGE model and to test it in drafting a macroeconomic scenario towards 2010. The authors review the main assumptions underlying the CGE model. They calibrate the model, using data from National Accounts for the year 2002. They find that the...