This article summarizes the main points of a project of the Institute of Economic Forecasting on the modelling of the business cycles. Each chapter is discussed in short but concise manner, namely, the second chapter on trend and cycles, the third chapter on the integration of business cycles...

This paper assesses the sustainability of the CA deficit in Romania by estimating its structural component, based on an inter-temporal perspective. Using a large sample of panel data, we estimated long term relationships for the CA deficit and its fundamentals. The main conclusion of the paper...

Considering the previous year's results, the paper re-addresses the issue of inflationary shocks dynamics and the dynamics of the foreign imbalance - induced shocks. The ideea of a correlation between the foreign imbalances and the output gap was first introduced by Acad. Emilian Dobrescu (2004)...

The study investigates whether the trend of declining targeted depreciation and diminution in the interest rates and inflation will continue in 2003, given the fact that the relatively high surplus on the forex market led in 2001 and 2002 towards real appreciation of ROL against the EUR-USD...

The matter of balance adjustment generates many interesting reflections. For a long time, the equilibrium of the balance of payments was the focus of theoretical debates referring to international economy. At the beginning, it was reduced to the equilibrium of the balance of current...

This paper discusses the causes that led to an increase in the average interbank money market rate far above the policy rate in the period 17 October-5 November 2008. Data do not support the assumption that interest rate volatility was generated by inadequate liquidity management in the banking...

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary fundamentals. I used robust regression approach for constructing robust neural models less sensitive to contamination with outliers and I studied its predictability on 1 to 6-month...

We discuss the application of a new test for nonlinearity for economic time series. We apply the test for several monthly unemployment series from the developed economies. We find nonlinearities in the unemployment for most of the European economies, but not for US, UK or Japan.