Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with families of models and not just with a couple of forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary fundamentals. I used robust regression approach for constructing robust neural models less sensitive to contamination with outliers and I studied its predictability on 1 to 6-month...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the expenditures decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis...

The current paper attempts to describe the labor market parameter dynamics using a different method, namely the semi-Markovian processes. This method allows for the labor market study without the large fluctuations that occurred at a certain moment in time impinging upon the results of the...

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and...

In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to 2010-2015 horizon, the authors use a mix of forecasting models, like „medium-term” ones and „long-run” models. In this respect three alternative models are used, a sustainability function model (for public...

The paper presents a high-frequency (monthly) forecast for six macroeconomic indicators: industrial output, inflation, unemployment rate, monetary base, households’ savings and exchange rate.

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...