Stochastic coefficients models can provide accurate agricultural secto forecasts and useful policy analysis Coefficient variation may occur for many reasons including aggregating over micro units, omitting variable, using an incorrect functional form, and allowing for a dynamic economic theory...

In this final article of our three-part series, we demonstrate why stochastic coefficients models are well suited to predict future variables We analyze the forecasting problem and consider various criteria of prediction If a forecaster must choose one from among several coherent predictors,...

Researchers should be wary of the expectations framework and optimization method employed when drawing conclusions about the likely production behavior of farmers The article compares the predictive accuracy of two expectational schemes, supply-based expectations (SBE) and adaptive expectations...

The theory of storage and arbitrage approaches fully incorporate nominal interest rates in far-near commodity price spreads Alternative frameworks admit a relationship between interest rates and commodity own rates of interest and as a result the commodity price spread would not completely...

The acreage reduction requirements in the 1986 wheat and corn programs more than offset the subsidy effects of the target price/deficiency payments affect world markets much like direct export subdidies, and acreage reduction requirements affect markets like an export tax This article estimates...

The probability-constrained minimum absolute deviations (MAD) estimator appears to be superior to the probability-constrained quadratic programming estimator in estimating transition probabilities with limited aggregate time series data Futhermore, one can reduce the number of columns in the...