A method is suggested for modeling uncertainty when there is a lack of information concerning the effect of forest management decisions on tree growth. Dynamic programming is used to investigate the optimality of alternative management strategies. The model is illustrated with an empirical...

The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environment. We use an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect cost linkages between energy and other sectors of the economy. Then, to allow sectoral output adjustment and the effects on the...

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 significantly changed incentives for investing. This analysis specifically examines how changes in marginal tax rates, depreciation schedules, and the investment tax credit altered the cost of capital and net investment in agriculture. A stochastic coefficients...

The successful expansion of the U.S crop insurance program has not eliminated ad hoc disaster assistance. An alternative currently being explored by Congress in preparation of the 2008 farm bill is a standing disaster relief program. One form such a program could take can be found in the area...

This article examines farm operating risks and cash-rent determination through the use of the efficient set mathematics. The efficient set mathematics proves to be a pragmatic approach to characterizing operating risks, and the relationships between operating risks and cash-rent determination....

Estimates of country-level loan default distributions are developed and used in a loan guarantee model to value the contingent liability of USDA's General Sales Manager (GSM) export credit guarantee portfolio. The results quantify the relationship between increasing guarantee coverage and the...

This study tests for the existence of default and liquidity risk premiums in Farm Credit System bonds. ARCH models are used with over eight years of daily data on yields to maturity of Farm Credit System bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds. Matching five-year maturities for both types of bonds were...

This study evaluates all USDA cotton supply and demand estimates for the United States and China (including unpublished price forecasts) from 1985/86 through 2009/10 for accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal that at every stage of the forecasting cycle forecast smoothing was the most...

Two nonparametric tests are employed to investigate the potential information value of USDA crop and livestock reports. If daily returns on days that reports are released (announcement days) differ when compared to non-announcement days for a sizeable number of commodities from a set of seven...

This paper examines how changes in major elements of the U.S. federal crop insurance program affect the structure of the agricultural insurance industry.We model interactions between farmers, insurance agents and insurance companies. Marginal changes in government policy (premium subsidy rate,...