The relationships between real wages, output per capita, inflation and unemployment in Italy between 1970 and 1994 are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression. There is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables, probably...

UK inflation has varied greatly in response to many economic policy and exchange-rate regime shifts, two world wars and two oil crises, as well as legislative and technological changes. Inflation is modelled as responding to excess demands from all sectors of the economy: goods and services,...

A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the range of possible paths the predicted variable may follow for a given confidence level requires construction of simultaneous confidence regions that adjust for any covariance between the elements...