We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight US dollar exchange rate return series over the...

Using annual data for 1872-1997, this paper re-examines the predictability of real stock prices based on price-dividend and price-earnings ratios. In line with the extant literature, we find significant evidence of increased long-horizon predictability; that is, the hypothesis that the current...