The information contained in a large panel dataset is used to date historical turning points and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series dynamics and link the groups with a dynamic structure. The dynamic structure identifies a group of leading and a group...

Using a panel of Austrian bank data we show that the lending decisions of the smallest banks are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and that for all banks, sensitivity changes over time. We propose to estimate the groups of banks that display similar lending reactions by means of a group...