SUMMARY We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential...

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment for the estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM model incorporates the unobserved volatility as an explanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension is...

We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In...

Convergence in the gross domestic product series of five European countries is empirically identified using multivariate time series models that are based on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties. We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over time and model...

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether these cycles coincide. Recent papers suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit spreads tend...

SUMMARY We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on factor loadings by using cubic spline functions. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this purpose. The methodology is illustrated by...