Monetary policy, the yield curve and the private sector behaviour of the US economy are modelled as a time-varying structural vector autoregression. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level of the term structure. Changes...

This paper reconsiders the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique using a DSGE sticky price model in which a weak central bank response to inflation generates equilibrium indeterminacy. The model is calibrated to capture the magnitude of the historical shift in the Federal Reserve's policy...