An ICAPM which includes bank credit growth as a state variable explains 94% of the cross-sectional variation in the average returns on the 25 Fama–French portfolios. We find compelling evidence that bank credit growth is priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns, even after...

Over the past decade there has been mixed evidence on the lead–lag relation between issuer-paid and investor-paid credit rating agencies. We investigate the lead–lag relationship for changes in bond ratings (BRs) and financial strength ratings (FSRs), for the US insurance industry, where...

It is often suggested that through a judicious choice of predictors that track business cycles and market sentiment, simple vector autoregressive (VAR) models could produce optimal strategic portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets....

Deposit insurance is widely offered in a number of countries as part of a financial system safety net to promote stability. An unintended consequence of deposit insurance is the reduction in the incentive of depositors to monitor banks which lead to excessive risk-taking. We examine the relation...

This paper develops a model of banking frictions and banking risk. As a sort of systemic risk, changes in banking risk lead to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. We decompose the macroeconomic effect of a banking risk shock into a pure default effect and a risk-aversion effect when...

This paper develops a model of regulated Brownian motion with an endogenous profit term to analyze the role of regulatory credibility on the stability and productivity of the banking system. We show that when regulatory intervention is perfect and costless, the volatility of the system can be...

This paper proposes a component approach to systemic risk which allows to decompose the risk of the aggregate financial system (measured by Expected Shortfall) while accounting for the firm characteristics. Developed by analogy with the Component Value-at-Risk concept, our new systemic risk...