From the market microstructure perspective, technical analysis can be profitable when informed traders make systematic mistakes or when uninformed traders have predictable impacts on price. However, chartists face a considerable degree of trading uncertainty because technical indicators such as...

I study how the possibility of default on external debts affects other capital allocation decisions in a small open economy. In the model, default has an option value derived from the randomization over ex-post default regimes, which depends on country-specific productivity shocks. This feature...

Using unique, district-level, economic growth data, I investigate the connection between banking sector development, human capital, and economic growth in Indian districts. Disaggregate data helps avoid many of the omitted variable problems that plague similar cross-country studies. The data...

In this paper, we use methods from social network analysis to assess the relative importance of financial centers around the world. Using data from virtually the entire universe of global equity activity, we present complete rankings for 45 separate locations for the period 1990–2006. Our...

The historical frequency of banking crises is similar in advanced and developing countries, with quantitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a dataset spanning from the early 1800s to the present. Banking crises weaken fiscal positions,...

In contrast to the well established markets such as the dollar-euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by conversion restrictions in the spot market rather than by changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper...

Systemic risk among the network of international banking groups arises when financial stress threatens to crisscross many national boundaries and expose imperfect international coordination. To assess this risk, we consider three decades of data on the cross-border interbank market. We use...

In single-equation tests, real exchange rates show mean reversion for nine of 10 Central and Eastern European transition countries for the period January 1993 to December 2005. Because of the shift from controlled to market economies and accompanying crises, failed policy regimes and changes in...

Differences in firm-level productivity explain international activities of non-financial firms quite well. We test whether differences in bank productivity determine international activities of banks. Based on a dataset that allows tracking banks across countries and across different modes of...

This article examines trading behavior in the options market conditioned on mispricing in the underlying stock. We investigate the price equilibrium between the observed equity asset and the options-implied synthetic share as well as the relative divergence between the two prices. We find a...