By employing Moody’s corporate default and rating transition data spanning the last 90years we explore how much capital banks should hold against their corporate loan portfolios to withstand historical stress scenarios. Specifically, we will focus on the worst case scenario over the...

This article extends the application of global games of Goldstein and Pauzner (2005) in the banking model of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) to account for correlation in the quality of banks’ long term investment, when banks are linked through cross deposits and there is a central bank. The goal is...

In this paper, we look at how the pre-crisis health of banks is related to the probability of receiving and repaying TARP capital. We find that financial performance characteristics that are related to the probability of receiving TARP funds differ for the healthiest (“over-achiever”) versus...

We construct hypothetical copycat funds to investigate the performance of free-riding strategies that duplicate the disclosed asset holdings of actively managed mutual funds. On average, copycat funds are able to generate performance that is comparable to their target mutual funds, taking into...

Systemic banking crises have placed enormous pressure on national governments to intervene. The empirical literature, however, is inconclusive on what an optimal bailout program should look like to mitigate the negative consequences of government interventions in the banking sector. We find...

This paper presents a flexible, lattice-based structural credit risk model that uses equity market information and a detailed depiction of a financial institution’s liability structure to analyze default risk. The model is applied to examine the term structure of default probabilities for...

This paper estimates an early warning system (EWS) for predicting systemic banking crises in a sample of low income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Since the average duration of crises in this sample of countries is longer than one year, the predictive performance of standard binomial logit...

Bank payouts divert cash to shareholders, while leaving behind riskier and less liquid assets to repay debt holders in the future. Bank payouts, therefore, constitute a type of risk-shifting that benefits equity holders at the expense of debt holders. In this paper, we provide insights on how...

With the establishment of an integrated Banking Union, the harmonization of supervisory styles (regulation being equal) plays a central role. Our paper addresses a central question: what supervisory culture has been demonstrated to be most effective at ensuring the stability of European banks?...

A new argument for the Basel III leverage ratio requirement is proposed: the need to limit the risk of a bank run when there is imperfect information on the value of a bank’s assets. In addition to screening and monitoring borrowers, banks provide liquidity insurance with the supply of...