This paper presents a flexible, lattice-based structural credit risk model that uses equity market information and a detailed depiction of a financial institution’s liability structure to analyze default risk. The model is applied to examine the term structure of default probabilities for...

This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to examine the driving factors of equity returns of US Bank Holding Companies. BMA has as an advantage over OLS that it accounts for the considerable uncertainty about the correct set (model) of bank risk factors. We find that out of a broad set of 12risk...

We examine the developments of depositor knowledge, attitudes, and behavior throughout the recent financial crisis and discuss their impact on bank run risk. Based on a self-collected data set surveying depositors before (2007), at (2008), and after the peak of the crisis (2009), we observe a...

Combined abnormal returns from U.S. bank holding company acquisitions during 2001–2011 suggest that diversification into investment banking, securities brokerage and insurance under the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act of 1999 creates value. Exceptional returns depend on contributing factors; the...

We investigate whether or not market discipline on banking firms changed after the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (DFA) of 2010. If market discipline is improved, we should see a lower discount for size on yield spreads, particularly for banks identified as...

We empirically investigate the effects of market structure on profitability and stability for 1929 banks in 40 emerging and advanced economies over 1999–2008 by incorporating the traditional structure-conduct-performance (SCP) and relative-market-power (RMP) hypotheses. We observe that a...

Prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis, banking sector profits were very high but the profitability of financial intermediation was poor. Using a novel model of banking, this article argues that the high profits were achieved through balance sheet expansion and growing default, liquidity, and...

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial...

In this paper we study systemic risk for the US and Europe. We show that banks’ exposures to common risk factors are crucial for systemic risk. We come to this conclusion by first showing that relations between US and European banks are smaller than within each region. We then show that...

This paper investigates contagion between bank and sovereign default risk in Europe over the period 2007–2012. We define contagion as excess correlation, i.e. correlation between banks and sovereigns over and above what is explained by common factors, using CDS spreads at the bank and at the...