This paper employs recently developed multivariate methods to study the predictability of international stock market returns. The authors find evidence of significant common predictable components within the Pacific, the European, and the North American stock markets using region-specific...

Using the Geweke-Porter-Hudak test, the author finds evidence of long memory in exchange-rate data. This implies t hat the empirical evidence of unit roots in exchange rates may not be robust to long-memory alternatives. Fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models are estimated...

A generalized.notion of cointegration, called fractional cointegration, is introduced to examine the long-run purchasing power parity hypothesis. By allowing deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractional process, the fractional cointegration analysis can capture a wider range of mean...

Response surface analysis is used to obtain approximate finite-sample critical values for the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Previous studies estimating the critical values for the test have generally ignored their possible dependence on the lag order. This study shows that the lag order, in...