Kim, Chang-Jin; Nelson, Charles R; Piger, Jeremy - In: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 22 (2004) 1, pp. 80-93
Using a Bayesian model comparison strategy, we search for a volatility reduction in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth within the postwar sample. We find that aggregate real GDP growth has been less volatile since the early 1980s, and that this volatility reduction is concentrated in...