In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of...

In monetary economics literature, there is an agreement that monetary policy has a lagged effect on inflation. As a result of this agreement, monetary policy reaction functions that include expected inflation, instead of current or lagged inflation, are established. On the other hand, there is...

In this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between interest rate and inflation rate in the context of the Fisher effect hypothesis for Fragile five economies. In this regard, we employ recently developed panel co-integration and panel causality test methods. The bi-directional causal...

This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate,...

While the legitimacy of the concept of the financial cycle (as distinct from the business cycle) in research and economic policy after the experience of the global financial crisis raises no concerns, the methodology for its application has become a subject of discussion. The purpose of this...

This study first investigates the short and long-run effectsof exchange rate, output gap and output gap volatility on inflationvolatility in Turkey by using the ARDL bounds testing approach.Second, we also examine the causal relationship among these vari-ables by using Toda-Yamamoto and...

This study investigates the determinants of Indonesian's business cycle using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, by including spillover responses within 33 countries with 2000 bootstrap replications. The results show that Indonesia's business cycle is influenced by both domestic...

The paper explores the possibility of making investment decisions in emerging markets by using the trend analysis method on a particular example of the capital market in Serbia. The authors, starting from the common features of technical analysis, have analysed the common share index value in...

This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable...

Okun’s law is one of the most widely-known stylized facts in the macroeconomic literature and policy. In this paper we study several aspects of Okun’s law in Macedonia between 2004 and 2016. Aggregate indicators show a link between output and unemployment that is in line with other emerging...