Goldsmith, Benjamin E; Butcher, Charles R; Semenovich, … - In: Journal of Peace Research 50 (2013) 4, pp. 437-452
We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide … unconditional two-stage model encompassing both instability and genocide, allowing our sample to be the available global data ….9% of genocide onsets correctly while also predicting 79.2% of non-onset years correctly, an improvement over a previous …