In the aftermath of the cold war, intrastate conflicts have emerged to challenge international stability and security. Although some authors have attempted to identify strategies for bringing these conflicts to a peaceful conclusion, these recommendations have not been formally grounded. In this...

Two theoretical orientations, the instrumental and affective, have purported to explain interstate ethnic conflict. This investigation provides an initial assessment of the ability of affective motivations to account for properties of international crises. The point of departure is a review of...

The primary objective of this article is to advance the development of early warning of intrastate conflict by combining country-level structural and events data in a logistic regression model calibrated and validated using split-sample cases. Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of...