In spite of its long history among scholars of international conflict, empirical evaluations of diversionary theory … international conflict participation on the other; and measurement error in operationalizations of the independent variableâ …

and political violence that bridges social, economic, and political dynamics occurring at the local level and conflict …

Theories of civil war usually theorize the choices of civilians and combatants without considering the institutional … context in which they interact. Despite common depictions of war as chaotic and anarchic, order often emerges locally … local wartime institutions. To this end, I present original evidence on conflict areas in Colombia to illustrate the scope …

Ethnicity is frequently posited as an important factor in civil violence and other political contexts. Despite the … attention that ethnicity receives, its effects depend on an important, but mostly ignored, assumption that ethnicity is … identify ethnicity correctly in many conditions. Individuals with a stronger identity, however, are often better at correctly …

While theoretical models of conflict often treat actors as unitary, most self-determination groups are fragmented into … find that competition between co-ethnic factions is a key determinant of their conflict behavior. More competing factions …

conflict? Three fuzzy systems models are developed and tested to assess the impact of U.S., USSR, and third-country arms … influenced by the competing power balance and power transition theories of international conflict, and the tests reveal that the …

that individuals must rely on cues to form opinions about war. But in an environment filled will potential cues, which ones … two distinct cues within the context of a newspaper story about the Iraq War to test four theoretical models of the … opinion formation, which suggests that individuals will attend to news events that conflict with their expectations in an …

violent militarized conflict; (2) the presence of a highly autocratic proliferator; and (3) divergent foreign policy interests …

The authors analyze a bargaining model of war that incorporates both commitment problems due to shifting power and … information models, the resolution of uncertainty through fighting can lead to the continuation of war rather than its termination …. Second, wars can be less—not more—likely to end in settlement the longer they last. Third, war aims increase over time as a …

conflict whereas the other is not receiving signals of an impending conflict. The effect of private mobilization on war is …One dominant explanation for why crises escalate to war is based on misperception. Alternative rational explanations … for why crises escalate to war are examined, including commitment problems, the cost of revealing military advantages, and …