The distribution of wealth in the world is manifested by the polarization of a rich North and a poor South. Is the North-South conflict increasing or decreasing, and does it depend on such variables as major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and world prosperity, as some schools of...

Alcock's (1972) two-phase theory of war and an earlier test of the theory are critically reviewed. Two pendulum hypotheses linking the onset of war (defined both broadly and narrowly), the formation of alliances, and changes in military expenditures are derived, operationalized, and tested....

There is little consensus and some degree of confusion over the meanings of the polarity and polarization concepts. An argument is advanced for viewing these phenomena as distinctly separate with polarity referring to the distribution of power among states and polarization referring to the...

This paper attempts to examine the extent to which military coups in one country influence in some fashion the occurrence of coups in other countries. The examination is conducted primarily via the application of three stochastic models (the Poisson, the "contagious Poisson," and the Gaussian...

Addressing Kondratieff's argument (1979) that long waves of economic activity are responsible for major wars, this study develops and tests three hypotheses relating war to long price waves. Focusing on the experiences of Great Britain and the United States between 1750 and 1977, we find that...

The basic assumptions associated with two approaches to analyzing the relationship between the distribution of capabilities and war, namely Waltz's analysis of systemic stability and Modelski's long cycle of global leadership, are examined and contrasted. The systemic stability model concludes...

Based on a model linking ascent prerequisites, relative decline, long-wave dynamics, and systemic war, the relationships among the pace of technological innovation, relative economic position, and naval capability are examined for Britain (1780-1913) and the United States (1870-1980). In both...

Of approximately 100 empirical democratic peace articles published in journals and papers presented at conferences over the last 10 years, none identifies a positive and statistically significant relationship between democratic dyads and militarized conflict. Therefore, many international...

The largely unanticipated end of the cold war and the consequent difficulties in explaining its demise underline the need to understand better the phenomenon of rivalries in world politics. There is, however, much more at stake than the history of the Soviet-American relationship because a...

One of the factors thought to explain the relative decline of system leaders is the high military overhead costs assumed by leaders. High defense burdens, however, may be achieved at the expense of investment, capital formation, and future economic growth. By evading the high defense burdens,...