In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GJR-GARCH model of Glosten et al. (1993), based on additive and multiplicative decompositions of the variance. They allow the variance of the model to have a smooth time-varying structure. The suggested parameterizations...

We analyse the impact of the Engle and Granger (1987) article by means of its citations over time, and find evidence of a second life starting in the new millennium. Next, we propose a possible explanation of the success of this citation classic. We argue that the conditions for its success were...

We propose new scoring rules based on conditional and censored likelihood for assessing the predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. These scoring rules can be interpreted in terms of...