This paper derives the limiting distributions of least squares averaging estimators for linear regression models in a local asymptotic framework. We show that the averaging estimators with fixed weights are asymptotically normal and then develop a plug-in averaging estimator that minimizes the...

The ranking of multivariate volatility models is inherently problematic because when the unobservable volatility is substituted by a proxy, the ordering implied by a loss function may be biased with respect to the intended one. We point out that the size of the distortion is strictly tied to the...

The paper examines volatility activity and its asymmetry and undertakes further specification analysis of volatility models based on it. We develop new nonparametric statistics using high-frequency option-based VIX data to test for asymmetry in volatility jumps. We also develop methods for...

The past decade witnessed a literature on model averaging by frequentist methods. For the most part, the asymptotic optimality of various existing frequentist model averaging estimators has been established under i.i.d. errors. Recently, Hansen and Racine [Hansen, B.E., Racine, J., 2012....

This paper proposes several testing procedures for comparison of misspecified calibrated models. The proposed tests are of the Vuong-type (Vuong, 1989; Rivers and Vuong, 2002). In our framework, the econometrician selects values for model’s parameters in order to match some characteristics of data...

When Japanese short-term bond yields were near their zero bound, yields on long-term bonds showed substantial fluctuation, and there was a strong positive relationship between the level of interest rates and yield volatilities/risk premiums. We explore whether several families of dynamic term...

We introduce a functional volatility process for modeling volatility trajectories for high frequency observations in financial markets and describe functional representations and data-based recovery of the process from repeated observations. A study of its asymptotic properties, as the frequency...

This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a number of rank-based and classical residual specification tests in AR–GARCH type models. We consider tests for the null hypotheses of no linear and quadratic serial residual autocorrelation, residual symmetry, and no structural breaks. We...

We develop methods for testing whether, in a finite sample, forecasts from nested models are equally accurate. Most prior work has focused on a null of equal accuracy in population — basically, whether the additional coefficients of the larger model are zero. Our asymptotic approximation...

We propose a panel data approach to disentangle the impact of “one treatment” from the “other treatment” when the observed outcomes are subject to both treatments. We use the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake that took place on January 17, 1995 to illustrate our methodology. We find that...