We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from I(0) to I(1) or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time...

This paper proposes a testing strategy for the null hypothesis that a multivariate linear rational expectations (LRE) model may have a unique stable solution (determinacy) against the alternative of multiple stable solutions (indeterminacy). The testing problem is addressed by a...

This paper investigates the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following  Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate...

This paper proposes a nonlinear panel data model which can endogenously generate both ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ cross-sectional dependence. The model’s distinguishing characteristic is that a given agent’s behaviour is influenced by an aggregation of the views or actions of those around...

This paper introduces a new family of portmanteau tests for serial correlation. Using the wavelet transform, we decompose the variance of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency and of its high frequency components and we design a variance ratio test of no serial...

This paper introduces the concept of risk parameter in conditional volatility models of the form ϵt=σt(θ0)ηt and develops statistical procedures to estimate this parameter. For a given risk measure r, the risk parameter is expressed as a function of the volatility coefficients θ0 and the...

This paper presents a variety of tests of volatility spillover that are robust to heavy tails generated by large errors or GARCH-type feedback. The tests are couched in a general conditional heteroskedasticity framework with idiosyncratic shocks that are only required to have a finite variance...

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then...

We propose methods for constructing confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend that have asymptotically correct coverage for both I(0) and I(1) processes. These are based on inverting a sequence of tests for the break location, evaluated across all possible break dates. We...

We propose a residual-based augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test statistic that allows for detection of stationary cointegration within a system that may contain both I(2) and I(1) observables. The test is also consistent under the alternative of multicointegration, where first differences of...