Estimating the integrated covariance matrix (ICM) from high frequency financial trading data is crucial to reflect the volatilities and covariations of the underlying trading instruments. Such an objective is difficult due to contaminated data with microstructure noises, asynchronous trading...

In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GJR-GARCH model of Glosten et al. (1993), based on additive and multiplicative decompositions of the variance. They allow the variance of the model to have a smooth time-varying structure. The suggested parameterizations...

In this paper we describe methods and evaluate programs for linear regression by maximum likelihood when the errors have a heavy tailed stable distribution. The asymptotic Fisher information matrix for both the regression coefficients and the error distribution parameters are derived, giving...

In the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown forms, the covariance matrix of the parameter estimator is often estimated using a nonparametric kernel method that involves a lag truncation parameter. Depending on whether this lag truncation parameter is specified to grow at...

This paper extends the asymptotic theory of GMM inference to allow sample counterparts of the estimating equations to converge at (multiple) rates, different from the usual square-root of the sample size. In this setting, we provide consistent estimation of the structural parameters. In...

We propose a general two-step estimator for a popular Markov discrete choice model that includes a class of Markovian games with continuous observable state space. Our estimation procedure generalizes the computationally attractive methodology of Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008) that...

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model to estimate rating migration matrices and default probabilities using the reinforced urn processes (RUP) introduced in Muliere et al. (2000). The estimated default probability becomes our prior information in a parametric model for the prediction of the...

When a model under-specifies the data generation process, model selection can improve over estimating a prior specification, especially if location shifts occur. Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can ‘correct’ non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in omitted variables, which...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions. We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...