We propose two new jump-robust estimators of integrated variance that allow for an asymptotic limit theory in the presence of jumps. Specifically, our MedRV estimator has better efficiency properties than the tripower variation measure and displays better finite-sample robustness to jumps and...

The ranking of multivariate volatility models is inherently problematic because when the unobservable volatility is substituted by a proxy, the ordering implied by a loss function may be biased with respect to the intended one. We point out that the size of the distortion is strictly tied to the...

We develop new methods for the estimation of time-varying risk-neutral jump tails in asset returns. In contrast to existing procedures based on tightly parameterized models, our approach imposes much fewer structural assumptions, relying on extreme-value theory approximations together with...

We introduce a hierarchical Bayes approach to model conditional firm-level alphas as a function of firm characteristics. Our empirical framework is motivated by growing concerns in the literature regarding the reliability of inferences from portfolio-based methods. In our initial tests, we...

We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in financial asset prices. Our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotics for directly identifying the jumps, together with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) approximations and methods-of-moments for assessing...

A new model class for univariate asset returns is proposed which involves the use of mixtures of stable Paretian distributions, and readily lends itself to use in a multivariate context for portfolio selection. The model nests numerous ones currently in use, and is shown to outperform all its...

We consider model identification for infinite variance autoregressive time series processes. It is shown that a consistent estimate of autoregressive model order can be obtained by minimizing Akaike’s information criterion, and we use all-pass models to identify noncausal autoregressive...

We develop a nonparametric test to check whether a process can be represented by a stochastic differential equation driven only by a Brownian motion. Our testing procedure utilizes the infinitesimal operator-based martingale characterization combined with a generalized spectral approach. Such a...

Detecting structural changes in volatility is important for understanding volatility dynamics and stylized facts observed for financial returns such as volatility persistence. We propose modified CUSUM and LM tests that are built on a robust estimator of the long-run variance of squared series....

A class of adaptive sampling methods is introduced for efficient posterior and predictive simulation. The proposed methods are robust in the sense that they can handle target distributions that exhibit non-elliptical shapes such as multimodality and skewness. The basic method makes use of...